Monitoring hepatocellular carcinoma by using a monoclonal immunoenzymometric assay for alpha-fetoprotein.

A monoclonal immunoenzymometric assay for alpha-fetoprotein (M-AFP) was evaluated with respect to its utility in monitoring hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. Earlier (Clin Chem 1986;32:1318-22), we found this immunoassay to demonstrate abilities similar to polyclonal AFP assays, and we suggested that changes in M-AFP correlated with changes in intrahepatic tumor volume in most HCC patients. In the present study, 107 HCC patients were evaluated between 1978 and 1986. Patient demographics characterized this study population as being similar to those seen in regions with low incidence of HCC. Changes in serum M-AFP concentration correlated moderately (r = 0.55) with changes in intrahepatic tumor volume. The AFP concentration in serum was found to be a statistically significant independent predictor of survival; patients with above-normal M-AFP (AFP[+]) at presentation demonstrated a median survival time of 10 months, compared with 16 months for patients with "normal" values for M-AFP (AFP[-]) (P = 0.008). This prognostic pattern persisted when adjusted for serum bilirubin concentration (AFP[+] 12 months vs AFP[-] 29 months, P = 0.01).